Inequality part 1 - Cointoss Kingdom

Wed 01 August 2018
A talented person can always improve their lot in society. Of course it helps if you start with a lot of wealth in the first place. As the late, great Denholm Reynholm said "When I started Reynholm Industries, I had just two things in my possession: a dream and six …

Currency and the Venezuelan Crisis

Mon 21 August 2017
Before getting stuck into the main point let me say that what's happening to the people of Venezuela is nothing short of a tragedy. If you, like me, live in a stable and affluent society then I doubt we can really imagine what Venezuelans feel as their society descends into …

Dealing with uncertainty

Thu 16 March 2017
Uncertainty can be confounding when thinking rationally. After many reasoned steps forward you may arrive at a fork in the road where your imperfect knowledge of the facts prevents you from knowing the correct direction of your next step. And if it's wrong, all subsequent steps will be wrong too …

My father

Sat 11 February 2017
These are the words I spoke at my father's funeral. I've altered them very slightly, mainly to remove names of family members. My father was a kind and gentle man. He was a man of few words but words that mattered. If you stand in the sitting room of his …

Why did the economy grow post-Brexit?

Wed 11 January 2017
Note: The main point of this post is on sketching a simple and plausible reason why growth held up in 2016 despite uncertainty from the result of the June 2016 Brexit vote together with the ensuing speculation on when (or if) Article 50 would be triggered. This is quite distinct …

Post-Trump thoughts

Wed 16 November 2016
The pollsters were wrong about Trump. This should not have come as too much of as a surprise. I hoped the predictions showing he would lose were correct, but following the 2015 UK General Election and the Brexit vote I was wary of slim margins in times of unusual political …

Kelly criterion and statistical weirdness

Fri 04 November 2016
I was prompted to write this after happening across this fascinating article in the Financial Times. Unhappily it's behind a paywall so I'll recount the gist of it here. Imagine you had a coin that had a 60% or 0.6 chance of tossing to give heads and a 40 …

Deficit identities

Wed 12 October 2016
It's my birthday today and as a treat, I've turned off my phone and am ignoring emails and social media for a short time so I can write up some stuff on macroeconomic identities. Yes, I know it sounds a bit sad, but it's what makes me happy. In this …

Mind and body

Fri 16 September 2016
I get my heart pumping at 150+ beats per minute three or four times a week in 45 minute sessions. An obvious benefit is that I generally feel fit and healthy, but that's not my main motivation: regular exercise helps keep my mental state in balance. Immediately after exercising my …

Brexit — correlations, causes and philosophy

Tue 28 June 2016
I shared some thoughts on why I voted remain, then mused on the result and the possibility that brexit might not happen, but now I'd like to try and understand why people in the UK voted to leave in such large numbers. There are a variety of simple stories: In …

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