My father

Sat 11 February 2017
These are the words I spoke at my father's funeral. I've altered them very slightly, mainly to remove names of family members. My father was a kind and gentle man. He was a man of few words but words that mattered. If you stand in the sitting room ...

Why did the economy grow post-Brexit?

Wed 11 January 2017
Note: The main point of this post is on sketching a simple and plausible reason why growth held up in 2016 despite uncertainty from the result of the June 2016 Brexit vote together with the ensuing speculation on when (or if) Article 50 would be triggered. This is quite distinct ...

Post-Trump thoughts

Wed 16 November 2016
The pollsters were wrong about Trump. This should not have come as too much of as a surprise. I hoped the predictions showing he would lose were correct, but following the 2015 UK General Election and the Brexit vote I was wary of slim margins in times of unusual political ...

Kelly criterion and statistical weirdness

Fri 04 November 2016
I was prompted to write this after happening across this fascinating article in the Financial Times. Unhappily it's behind a paywall so I'll recount the gist of it here. Imagine you had a coin that had a 60% or 0.6 chance of tossing to give heads and ...

Deficit identities

Wed 12 October 2016
It's my birthday today and as a treat, I've turned off my phone and am ignoring emails and social media for a short time so I can write up some stuff on macroeconomic identities. Yes, I know it sounds a bit sad, but it's what makes me ...

Mind and body

Fri 16 September 2016
I get my heart pumping at 150+ beats per minute three or four times a week in 45 minute sessions. An obvious benefit is that I generally feel fit and healthy, but that's not my main motivation: regular exercise helps keep my mental state in balance. Immediately after exercising ...

Brexit — correlations, causes and philosophy

Tue 28 June 2016
I shared some thoughts on why I voted remain, then mused on the result and the possibility that brexit might not happen, but now I'd like to try and understand why people in the UK voted to leave in such large numbers. There are a variety of simple stories ...

The EU referendum result

Fri 24 June 2016
photo credit: Start button via photopin (license) It's midnight on one of the shortest nights of the year and I'm ambling down a leafy road. There's some light summer rain and I'm pleasantly inebriated after ...

The EU referendum

Sat 18 June 2016
For citizens used to representative democracy the belief we're voting for significant change can be intoxicating. We like to anchor our instinctive reaction for Remain or Leave, or Yes or No, with rational arguments. But instinct is a more powerful driver of thought than many of us can admit ...

Raising tax can raise GDP

Mon 13 June 2016
I've been improving my grounding in macroeconomics recently and have noticed something that isn't stated explicitly in textbooks, nor mentioned in public political debate, but I do think it's correct and liable to provoke some thought. The main point of this blog post is expressed in the ...

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