General Election 2015 Scotland Constituency prediction

Thu 07 May 2015

In my last post I made a prediction on overall vote share and seats in Scotland for the 2015 General Election. I'm going to stick my neck out even further and make a prediction on which parties will win the Scottish constituencies. I'm prepared to be laughed at quite a lot on this one.

Below is the list of 13 Scottish constituencies that I think can realistically be won by Labour, the Conservatives or the Lib Dems, ordered from most to least likely. The 46 remaining seats have a high probability of being won by the SNP, and the worst result I can envisage for the SNP is that they'd win "only" 30 seats.

Colours on the left indicate the 2010 result and those on the right indicate my 2015 prediction.

The method draws on a number of sources, but does not try and account for the popularity of the incumbent MP. The ICM poll of Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat conducted the weekend before the election suggests naming the candidate can make a significant difference. If so, I suspect that a few more Lib Dem seats might be held.

My full list of 59 seats in descending order of the chance of a non-SNP party winning can be seen in this spreadsheet.

I may expound on how I arrived at these predictions, but only if they don't turn out to be embarrassingly wrong.

EDIT (7th May 21:50): The four Conservative wins will be much less likely if Labour voters are as reluctant to vote tactically for the Tories as Lord Ashcroft found in his most recent polls. (And yes, this is a bit of last-minute arse-covering on my part!)